Haaland: Shots on Target Over 1.5 at -118. Haaland posts 3.8 shots per 90 and 1.71 SOT per appearance. If City press for early goals—58% win odds suggest dominance—Haaland sees increased service. The 1.5 threshold is routine for his shot volume. -118 undervalues the edge.

Cards: Over 4.5 at -227. Stuart Attwell leads the league in cards per match (4.7 average, rank 1 out of 19). Cristian Romero (nine yellows in 23 games, 0.53 per 90), João Palhinha (seven yellows in 31 games, 0.31 per 90), Rodrigo Bentancur (seven yellows in 24 games, 0.36 per 90), and Moises Caicedo (11 yellows in 31 games, 0.41 per 90) form a card-collection all-star team. In a tight, physical London derby with maximum tension, crossing 4.5 cards is highly likely.

Manchester City on the moneyline at -141. Our model projects 58.1% City win probability with a blended 1.9-goal output. City's away xG edge (1.90 per game versus Bournemouth's home xGA of 0.83) is extreme. The four missing Bournemouth midfielders eliminate possession cohesion. This is City's game to lose.

Romero to be carded at +128. Romero averages 0.53 yellows per 90 minutes (nine in 1878 minutes)—elite card risk. Under Stuart Attwell's whistle (4.7 cards per match, rank 1 out of 19), a physical centerback who plays at the edge has maximum booking probability. The market's +128 (43.9 percent implied) underprices his actual risk. True probability is closer to 50 percent. This is value.