Matas Buzelis Over 21.5 Points (HIGH confidence): Buzelis is averaging 21.4 PPG over his last 10 games at 59.2% true shooting, and tonight he is Chicago's unchallenged primary scorer with Sexton and Simons both out. Memphis has no wing defender on this current roster capable of guarding him at this deployment level. This is the top individual prop on the board.

Zion Williamson Over 21.5 Points (HIGH confidence): This is the most compelling individual prop on the slate. Zion averages 25.3 PPG at home over his last 12 games on 63.3% true shooting. His 13.9 drives per game will attack fatigued Dallas defenders directly. He has averaged 23.0 PPG across two meetings with Dallas this season. The 21.5 line understates his home production by nearly four points.

Bulls -5.5 (HIGH confidence): Our model projects a 5.3-point Chicago margin, sitting right inside the number. Memphis is 0-3 on the road over its last five games with a devastated roster, and Donovan's competition-first stance removes any lineup risk. This is the primary play on the card.

With Carvalho, Janelt, Henry, and Hickey all out, Thiago channels virtually all Brentford offensive output at 0.70 xG/90 and 2.4 shots/90. At -139, this is the only HIGH-confidence play on the card — any Brentford goal is overwhelmingly likely to run through him.