Tyrese Maxey over 27.5 points: Maxey's L10 average of 34.3 PPG represents the hottest scorer on the entire slate, and his season clip against Boston (28.3 PPG in 6 games) already clears this line. A must-win playoff home game only amplifies his offensive burden with Embiid absent from the Sixers' interior.

Alperen Sengun Over 5.5 Assists (-143) | HIGH confidence. This is the cleanest edge on the board. Sengun averages 6.2 assists per game on the season and has held that exact rate in three meetings against the Lakers this year. His last 10 games show 6.6 assists trending up. Houston's game plan runs through his post touches as the primary release valve against the trap, and at home as a heavy favorite he plays full minutes with maximum playmaking volume. Over 5.5 is the bet in this game.

De'Aaron Fox Over 19.5 points @ -105 (HIGH confidence). This is the clearest number in the entire game. Fox's last ten games are trending at 24.1 PPG, and in regular season games without Wembanyama he averaged 24.6 PPG while attempting 4.2 more shots. Against Portland in five games this season he has averaged 23.0 PPG at 45.6% shooting. His 12.1 drives per game and 55.5% drive conversion rate give him consistent interior scoring paths regardless of game script. Playoff usage only grows from here. Getting -105 on that profile is underpriced.

Jrue Holiday Over 6.5 assists @ -110 (HIGH confidence). Holiday's last ten games have produced 9.0 APG, a significant surge above his 6.1 season average. Against San Antonio in three regular season meetings he posted 8.7 APG. Both trend lines sit well above 6.5. His 11.6 drives per game sustain high creation rates, and on a Portland team that needs to move the ball against the third-ranked defense in the league, Holiday as the floor general sees maximum playmaking responsibility. When the recent form and the opponent-specific split both point clearly in one direction, that is a HIGH confidence situation.