De'Aaron Fox Over 5.5 Assists (-130) | Player Prop | HIGH confidence. This is the highest-confidence prop on the board because of three-way alignment. Fox averages 6.2 APG for the season, 6.3 APG against OKC across nine games this season, and 7.0 APG over his last 10. All three reference points sit above 5.5. His 12.1 drives per game and 55.5% drive field goal percentage generate consistent kick-out opportunities even when his ankle limits his own scoring. The playmaking stays active. At -130, the alignment is too clean to pass up.

First Basket: Victor Wembanyama (+425). Wembanyama converts first baskets at approximately a 24.3% rate across his starts, the highest mark in this game by a wide margin. San Antonio wins the opening tip 78.8% of the time and scores first in over 57% of their games. The combination of an elite tip-win rate and Wemby's first-basket conversion frequency makes the market's implied probability of around 19% a clear undervaluation. At +425, this is a sharp value play for a game where the Spurs are likely to control the opening possession.

New York Yankees -1.5 (+102) , HIGH confidence. Plus money on a team with a plus-95 run differential, a five-game winning streak where they outscored opponents 36-6, and a structural bullpen advantage heading into Game 2 is a genuine pricing inefficiency. The market is still pricing in uncertainty around Ginn that his 3.19 season ERA generates, but that number does not override a 6-walk, 2.1-inning meltdown as the most recent start. The Athletics enter with their relief corps compromised, their home record at 10-16, and their lineup carrying real platoon disadvantages against a left-handed starter with a 10.2 K/9 rate. Getting paid to take the Yankees to win by two or more is the primary play in this game.

James Wood Over 0.5 Total Bases (-179) (HIGH confidence). Wood is the standout offensive profile in this game. His .273/.414/.545 season line, 1.021 vR OPS against right-handers, and 1.472 OPS over the last seven days put him in elite current form. At Nationals Park his slugging climbs to .553. With a 96.6 mph exit velocity and 61.2% hard-hit rate, Wood makes hard contact at a rate that gives him a high floor for extending to extra bases even when he does not homer. King's recent command issues increase the probability Wood works a favorable count. The -179 price reflects fair confidence in a hitter performing at this level.