Jaylen Brown Over 24.5 Points (-106): This is the highest-confidence player prop on the board tonight. Brown averages 28.4 PPG on a 35.2% usage rate and faces Warriors backup guards who have no answer for his drive-and-finish game at 54% conversion on 19.0 drives per game. He scored 23 against Golden State earlier this season with a healthier roster around him. Tonight the assignment is easier and the line at minus-106 is exceptional value for the Celtics' primary engine in a projected double-digit win.

Nikola Jokic Points + Assists Over 39.5 (HIGH confidence): Jokic averages 28.6 points and 10.5 assists per game, totaling 39.1 combined on the season. This line is priced at near-even -110 against arguably the softest matchup he will see all year. Edey is gone for the season. There is no one to contest his drives or disrupt his passing reads. A 30-point, 12-assist game is the most likely outcome here, and this is the best individual prop on the board tonight. The line is at his season average and the matchup could not be more favorable.

Brandon Ingram Over 23.5 Points (-106): This is too cheap for a player averaging 32 PPG against Chicago this season who just posted 34 against Detroit in his 11th 30-point game of the year. At -106, the market barely prices in what the head-to-head history actually says. Chicago has no reliable answer for Ingram's iso mid-post game, and with multiple rotation scorers missing, defensive help rotations will not arrive clean. When the number is this low and the recent form is this hot, the Over is the play.

Deni Avdija Over 22.5 Points (HIGH confidence): Avdija seasons at 24 PPG with 60% true shooting. His recent dip to 16.3 PPG over his last ten came against more demanding defensive matchups. Tonight, with Sharpe out and his usage climbing, he faces a back-to-back Indiana perimeter with no primary defender capable of tracking 18.9 drives per game. When a player this efficient gets clean looks against a broken defense, 22.5 is a number you want to be over.