De'Aaron Fox Over 5.5 assists (-169) , HIGH confidence. This is the cleanest edge on the entire slate. Fox averages 6.2 APG on the season, 7.0 APG over his last ten (trending up), and 6.3 APG across six games against New York. Every single split lands comfortably above 5.5. His 12.1 drives per game and 28.6 AST% lock in his role as the primary distributor. In a half-court elimination game where Wembanyama needs to be fed in controlled sets, Fox becomes even more central to how San Antonio generates offense. The juice at -169 is fair for a prop with this level of cross-split confirmation. Bet this one confidently.

First Basket: Victor Wembanyama (+333). San Antonio wins the opening tip 78.8% of the time, the highest tip-win rate in this matchup by a significant margin. Wembanyama's first-basket rate on the team is 25.3%, the best on the Spurs, representing 19 first baskets in 75 starts. He takes the opening shot on more than one in four possessions when San Antonio controls the tip, backed by a 31.6% usage rate and 5.9 drives per game to generate volume. Near-certain tip possession combined with the league's best first-basket rate at this position is a decisive combination at +333.

Ty France Over 0.5 Hits (-179) , HIGH confidence. This is the cleanest batter-versus-pitcher edge in this game. France owns a .500 average and 1.462 OPS in 15 career plate appearances against Eovaldi. Break it down by season: 1.167 OPS in 2021, 1.000 OPS in 2022, 2.067 OPS in 2023. Three separate samples across three seasons, all pointing the same direction. France is currently hitting .259/.306/.490 with a .796 OPS against right-handers in 2026, and his L7d OPS sits at 1.000. He is hot, and his career track against Eovaldi is as lopsided as any matchup on the board tonight.

Jo Adell Under 0.5 Hits (+154) | HIGH confidence. Adell has gone 0-for-7 against Ginn across 2025 and 2026 with a 0.000 OPS in each season separately. He also carries a .611 OPS against right-handed pitching this year overall. The market prices this at 39.4% implied probability, which substantially underweights what the head-to-head history says. At +154, this is the sharpest batter-vs-pitcher under on the board tonight. Ginn has no reason to groove anything into that at-bat, and the history confirms he has not.