LaMelo Ball over 7.5 assists (-175) | HIGH confidence. This is the clearest prop on the board tonight. Ball's season average is 7.1 APG, but his L10 is 8.4 APG, and he averaged 9.0 APG in three meetings with Miami this season. The 7.5 line sits below both his recent trend and his Miami-specific numbers. His 10.9 drives per game force collapses that kick out to shooters, and in a Play-In game where Charlotte needs its offense firing, Ball's role as primary creator only expands. When Ball guards this Miami defense, the assist numbers follow. This is the anchor prop of the night.

Jrue Holiday Over 7.5 assists (+240) | HIGH confidence. Holiday has surged to 9.0 assists per game over his last 10, nearly two full dimes above the 7.5 line. He leads Portland in first-basket rate at 12.0%, drives 11.6 times per game with 50.6% drive field-goal percentage, and creates consistently off penetration. As Portland's primary facilitator in an elimination spot, the ball finds him at an elevated rate. Getting plus-money on a trend this clearly defined is the best value play on the board tonight. The line simply has not caught up to his recent form.

Coby White over 13.5 points (-106) | HIGH confidence. White's L10 average is 20.8 PPG. His season average is 17.4 PPG. Against Miami in four games this season, he averaged 16.8 PPG. The 13.5 line is well below every relevant benchmark. At 11.5 drives per game with a 51.9% drive field goal percentage, White does not wait for the offense to find him. At -106, this is one of the most straightforward props on the slate.

First Basket: Bam Adebayo (+480). Adebayo converts the first basket at a 19.7% rate, ranking first on Miami's roster. Miami wins the opening tip 59.8% of the time, the highest tip-win rate of any player with first basket data in this game. Charlotte's tip-win rate is only 42.7%. First possession plus a near-20% conversion rate at +480 is genuine value against the underlying numbers.